The ink was barely dry on the tally sheets of November’s election when intense media focus shifted to the 2014 race for Governor. Pennsylvania has a longstanding tradition for gubernatorial elections. For more than two generations the Commonwealth has elected Governors of opposite Parties every eight years. This unbroken skein dates back to before Pennsylvania governors could succeed themselves. No governor has ever lost a bid for re-election.

Charlie Gerow is CEO of Quantum Communications, a Harrisburg-based public relations and issue advocacy firm

Quantum's Charlie Gerow

Some pundits have suggested that 2014 may be the most severe test of the historic run.

Governor Corbett took on the special interests and, as a result, his poll numbers currently lag behind where he’d like them. He waits to face the winner of a crowded Democratic primary.

Right now there are at least eight announced Democratic candidates. They fall into three tiers: those with the money, name identification and organization to show well in early polls, a second group right behind them and those who are long shots.

What is most interesting about the field is who’s not currently in it. There’s constant speculation that either former Auditor General Jack Wagner or Attorney General Kathleen Kane will be a late entry into the Democratic sweepstakes. Either would dramatically alter the dynamics of the Democratic primary.

Here’s a brief look at the field:

TOP TIER

Allyson Schwartz

Schwartz has emerged as the frontrunner for the Democratic nod and is working hard to solidify her base in southeastern Pennsylvania, build on her fundraising base and make inroads into other parts of the Commonwealth. A recent poll by Pennsylvania firm Harper Polling shows Schwartz in the early lead with a 7 point advantage over her closest rival. But while her support is strong in the Philadelphia media market, in other parts of the state she sits at the bottom of the heap. Whether or not she can sell voters west of Paoli on her liberal views and history could well determine whether she is the nominee or ultimately gets elected.

Rob McCord

State Treasurer Rob McCord is positioning himself as the most viable Democrat in the fall election.

The only Democrat in the race (so far) who’s won a statewide election, he was a successful businessman before entering the political world, it’s a strong narrative. With considerable fundraising ability and the early backing of several significant labor unions, McCord is working to build a base in Western Pennsylvania. This would separate the Montgomery County native from a field that is southeastern PA-centric. Early polls show him leading in the Pittsburgh area, but trailing both Allison Schwartz and Katie McGinty statewide, albeit by narrow margins.

Katie McGinty

The former Secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection doesn’t begin the race with the name ID that elected officeholders enjoy. But she has strong backing from some national Democrats from her days in the Clinton White House. She is positioning herself to win a large share of the woman’s vote, a strategy that seems to be working. She spent the critical early months of her campaign quietly building an impressive organization and campaign war chest and many report that she was very effective in Pittsburgh and western Pennsylvania.

 

SECOND TIER

John Hanger

Another former Rendell cabinet member (DEP Secretary), Hanger has laid out the most specific policy plans and is hoping enough Democratic voters warm to his uber-policy wonk persona to win.

His cutting edge issue is his call for decriminalizing marijuana, a tenuous political proposition. Yet Hanger leads (although within the margin of error) the field of “second tier” candidates who hover in the high single digits in current polling.

Ed Pawlowski

The Allentown Mayor sees his path to victory built on his record as executive of a mid-sized city and without ties to either Washington or Harrisburg.

The early stages of his campaign have been very aggressive, including a high profile event during the Pennsylvania Society weekend and an ambitious statewide “jobs” tour. Whether or not he can raise the money and build an organization necessary to sustain his momentum and carry him into the lead group is a big question.

Tom Wolf

Yet another former Rendell Cabinet secretary (Revenue), Wolf is building his campaign on the foundation of his central Pennsylvania roots, his record as a successful businessman and a promise to inject $10 million of his own money into his campaign.

If Wolf honors his commitment to pour 8 figures into his effort he will be a strong contender for the nomination. Ask Tom Smith, the obscure businessman who vaulted to the GOP nomination for the U.S. Senate in 2012, what 10 million bucks will do for your political fortunes.

 

LONGSHOTS

Jo Ellen Litz

A Lebanon County Commissioner from Lebanon she touts herself as the local government voice in the race. But those aren’t issues being talked about over morning coffee and with two other women at the top of the chart Commissioner Litz has little running room.

Max Myers

The Cumberland County pastor is little known even in his home base and has little money and organization. Although he is articulate and positions himself as a centrist, it’s highly unlikely that he factors into the race.

 

WAITING IN THE WINGS

Jack Wagner

The popular former Auditor General has done little to tamp down speculation about him running. He says he’ll make an announcement by the end of the year. Wagner faces a couple of challenges: 1) He was recently defeated in the Democratic primary for Mayor of Pittsburgh and 2) he has historically struggled with fundraising. If Wagner chooses to run he will enjoy wide name identification and some organization. As the only candidate from the West he could enjoy a situation similar to the Republicans in 1978 when several high-powered candidates from the southeast (Specter, Butera, Marston) slugged it out while the sole candidate from the west (Thornburgh) waltzed through.

 

Governor Tom Corbett

The Governor enters the race with soft polling numbers. But he enjoys all the advantages of incumbency and a war chest of $30 million. He is a fierce competitor who has enjoyed tremendous electoral success over the years (In the 2010 Obama landslide he was re-elected Attorney General with more votes than any Republican has ever gotten in Pennsylvania)

Governor Corbett has cut taxes by more than a billion dollars, a figure that will climb to more than $6 billion if his initiatives remain in place. Most recently he won passage of the transportation funding bill which will improve public safety, decrease traffic congestion and contribute mightily to the state’s economy. He also proved that he can work with the legislature to get things done.

Governor Corbett will face the winner of a potentially bloody and bruising Democratic Primary. He will have the resources and organization to tell his story.

A year from now he may well be able to paraphrase Mark Twain and say that reports of his political demise were grossly exaggerated.